Global steel consumption in 2020 will decrease due to the COVID-19 pandemic by 6.4% – to 1.654 billion tons, but will increase in 2021 compared to the previous year – by 3.8%, to 1.717 billion tons, predicts the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
Such data are contained in the association’s short-term forecast released on Thursday.
However, it notes that the decline in global steel demand this year will be mitigated by an expected faster recovery in China than in the rest of the world.
The outlook assumes that quarantines in most countries will be eased during June and July, while social distancing controls remain in place and that major steel economies will not be hit by significant secondary waves of the pandemic.
Commenting on the outlook, Worldsteel Economic Committee Chairman Al Remeithi stated that the COVID-19 crisis, with its disastrous consequences for public health, also entails a huge crisis for the global economy.
“Our clients have suffered from the general freeze in consumption, stoppages and disruption to supply chains, therefore, we expect a significant decrease in demand for steel in most ve countries, especially in the second quarter. With the easing of restrictions, which began in May, we expect a gradual improvement in the situation, but the path of recovery will be slow, “the expert believes.
According to him, it is possible that the decline in demand for steel in most countries will be less serious than during the global financial crisis, as the consumption and service sectors that have been hit hardest have become less intense.In many advanced economies, demand for steel was already weak but has not fully recovered since 2008.
At the same time, Remeyty stressed that this forecast was presented at a time of significant uncertainty. As the economy reopens without a vaccine or medicine, there is a significant risk of its decline. If the situation with coronavirus passes without the second and third peaks, and if government incentives are continued, we can see a relatively quick recovery, res the expert hummed.
According to the association, in 2020, steel consumption is expected to grow by 1% in China, to 916.5 million tons and will remain at the same level in 2021 – 916.5 million tons
Steel consumption in the CIS in 2020 will decrease by 10.3% – to 52.7 million tons, in 2021 it will increase by 7.1%, to 56.5 million tons.
Steel consumption in the EU this year will fall by 15.8% – to 133.1 million tons, in 2021 it will increase by 10.4% – to 147 million tons.
NAFTA countries will reduce consumption this year by 20%, to 108 million tons, in 2021 – will increase by 6.2% – up to 114.7 million tons. Central and South America will drop 17.3% this year and rise 12.2% next year to 35.1 million tonnes and 39.3 million tonnes, respectively.
Africa will reduce demand for 9.4% – to 33 million tonnes this year, and an increase of 5.9% – to 34.9 million tonnes in 2021, the Near (Middle) East in 2020 is expected to reduce consumption by 17.4% – up to 40.2 million tons, but will increase by 12.9% in 2021 – up to 45.4 million tons.
Countries of Asia and Oceania in 2020 will reduce demand by 2.8% – to 1 billion 218.6 million tons, but will increase in 2021 – by 2%, to 1 billion 243.2 million tons.
In the forecast for countries, in particular, it is reported that India in 2020, is expected to reduce steel consumption by 18% compared to 2019 – to 83.3 million tons, but will increase in 2021 – by 15%, to 95.8 million tons, the United States will reduce by 22.9%, to 75 , 3 million tons, but will increase in 2021 by 5.7% – up to 79.5 million tons. Japan this year will reduce demand by 19.1%, to 51.1 million tons, in 2021 – it will increase by 6.8%, to 54.6 million tons.
South Korea in 2020 will also reduce steel consumption by 12.7% – to 46.5 thousand tons, but will increase in 2021 – by 5.9%, to 49.2 million tons. The Russian Federation will reduce demand by 10% and increase by 6.5% – to 39.1 million tons and 41.7 million tons, respectively, Germany this year will reduce demand by 20%, but will increase in the next – by 12%, to 27, 9 million tons and 31.3 million tons. Turkey in 2020 will increase demand by 3%, in 2021 – by 9.3%, to 26.8 million tons and 29.3 million tons, Italy will reduce demand by 18% and increase by 16.6%, to 20 , 5 million tons and 23.9 million tons, Vietnam will demonstrate growth of 2.8% and 3.3% – up to 25 million tons and 25.8 million tons, respectively.
In 2019, 64 countries produced 1 billion 766.5 million tons of steel.