Global steel consumption in 2020 is expected to decrease by 2.4% compared to 2019 – to 1 billion 725.1 million tons due to the COVID-19 pandemic, said Worldsteel CEO Edwin Basson (Edwin Basson) at an online press briefing on Thursday.
According to Worldsteel forecast, in 2021, global steel consumption is expected to grow by 4.1% – up to 1 billion 795.1 million tons.
In 2019, global steel consumption increased by 3.5% compared to 2018 – up to 1 billion 766.7 million tons. At the same time, it is noted that due to statistical discrepancies, which Worldsteel previously reported, associated with the closure of furnaces in China and, as a result, the underestimation of demand in official data, while in reality they continued to work. Worldsteel estimates real growth in China in 2019 at 4%. This translates into global growth of 1.3% in 2019.
It is noted that although demand declines in 2020, this decline is much smaller than previously expected. A strong recovery in China will soften the decline in global steel demand this year. The recovery in demand for steel in the rest of the world after the lockdown (suspension of work – IF ) in the rest of the world was stronger than previously expected, but in 2020 it still means a deep contraction, as in the developed and in developing countries, with only a partial recovery expected in 2021. The forecast suggests that despite the current surge in infections in many parts of the world, nationwide lockdowns will not recur. Instead, selective and targeted measures could contain a second wave of the pandemic.
In a press release, the chairman of the economic committee of the World Steel Association, Saeed Ghumran Al Remeithi, commented on the forecast, noting that the global steel industry surpassed its lowest level of demand this year in April and has been recovering since mid-May.
“However, recovery is uneven across countries, depending on their success in containing the virus, national industrial structure and, finally, economic support measures.China has shown a remarkably robust recovery, which has led to a major upward revision of its global growth forecast for 2020. Elsewhere, we see a sharp decline in steel demand in both developed and developing countries. was particularly difficult for developing countries as they continue to grapple with an uncontrolled virus, low commodity prices and falling exports and tourism. The pandemic has accelerated the development of megatrends that have gradually transformed both our industry and our clients’ industries, with long-term impacts far greater than the short-term impact of demand, “the head of the Economics Committee was quoted as saying.
In a press release from Worldsteel states that recovery from the pandemic remains fragile due to a second wave of infections, continued social distancing measures, rising unemployment and weak confidence, coupled with growing concerns about the timing of the demand recovery. On the positive side, health systems are now in much better shape for tackling the pandemic with lessons learned from the first wave A careful balance is being struck between containing the virus and keeping the economy viable.In addition, there is uncertainty in the northern hemisphere about how COVID-19 will evolve over the coming years. influenza season, which could seriously affect the outlook for 2021. The risk is biased downward. A W-shaped recovery cannot be ruled out, and a full recovery in 2021 is unlikely.
In China, steel demand is forecast to grow by 8% this year, to 980.1 million tonnes, and in 2021, demand for steel at the level of 980.1 million tons.
In the EU in 2020, steel consumption will decrease by 15.2% – to 134.3 million tons, in 2021 it will increase by 11% – to 149 million tons. The rest of Europe will show an increase in demand this year by 4% – up to 35.2 million tons, in 2021 demand is expected to grow by 11.9% – up to 39.3 million tons.
CIS countries in 2020 year will reduce demand by 9% – to 53.6 million tons, but will increase in 2021 – by 5.5%, to 56.5 million tons.
USMCA countries (updated NAFTA) will reduce consumption in this year by 15.3% – up to 114.6 million tons, in 2021 they will increase by 6.7%, up to 122.2 million tons. Central and South America will reduce demand by 10.1% this year, and will increase by 8.2% next year, to 37.4 million tons and 40.5 million tons, respectively.
Africa will reduce demand for 16% – to 30.6 million tons this year, and will increase by 9.3% – to 33.4 million tons in 2021, the Near (Middle) East will reduce consumption by 19.5% and