The short-term outlook (SRO), published in June 2020 by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), foresees a significant decline in steel demand in developing countries, excluding China, in 2020. Demand is expected to contract by 11.6% in 2020, after which there will be a significant recovery. 9.2% in 2021.
Tough nationwide lockdowns in India have resulted in almost zero industrial operations. Construction activity that has come to a standstill should not recover soon. The automotive and engineering sectors are expected to continue to decline. In view of all of the above factors, steel demand in India is likely to decline by 18% in 2020. However, Worldsteel predicts a 15% rebound in 2021.
Restrictions in China have affected not only this country, but also countries throughout the ASEAN region. The association envisions relatively strong growth in Vietnam as a result of early containment of the pandemic.
Latin American countries are unlikely to see any recovery in 2020. The region is expected to see a significant decline in steel demand in 2020 and a weak recovery in 2021. The outlook is likely to deteriorate further as countries in the region continue to grapple with the situation. At the same time, the Covid-19 crisis, coupled with falling oil prices, will lead to a serious reduction in demand for steel in the CIS region.